Last year we told you to draft around running back, fade tight end and quarterback, and get your wide receivers in the mid rounds. It won leagues. This year's version is more RB-heavy, not less — and the data backs every round of it.
Here is the TL;DR version. But for you diehards, keep reading.
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The strategy in ten seconds |
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Six ranges. Know them and you know where the value is. The ends of the draft — 1.10 through 1.12 — hit three of the good ones and skip the hellscape entirely.
WHY TAKE RUNNING BACK EARLY?
The market got hot. That's not the trap.
Prices for running backs went up this year. That doesn't make paying for them the mistake — it makes letting the first two rounds pass without one the mistake. Here's average PPG by the round you drafted them, 2025:
Backs win rounds 1 through 3 by two to three points a game. Receivers win rounds 4 through 7. Backs win again from round 8 on. Draft each position where its production is highest relative to the other one.
Two numbers to burn in. The RB cliff from round 3 to round 4 is 4.5 points per game, the steepest drop anywhere on the board. And round-7 backs averaged 5.8 — backs taken in the 9th and 10th outscored both round-5 and round-7 backs. Miss your window and you wait for the 8th. Don't pay the toll in between.
The lines cross between rounds 3 and 4. That crossover is the strategy.
WHAT ABOUT THE ONESIE POSITIONS?
Yes, still punt QB and TE.
We were the only channel saying fade both— multiple years running. Now it's popular. Popular doesn't change the math.
Waiting on a quarterback costs you a point a game. Waiting on a tight end costs four tenths. Waiting on a running back or receiver costs 4.2 — and in a two-flex league it costs 8.4. Add a flex spot and the onesie costs sit still while the RB/WR cost doubles. That's the entire argument, and it's the number the video moves past too quickly.
The only exceptions. Let them fall to you — make your leaguemates force you to take them.
WHERE DO I AVOID?
Six years of bust rates.
| Round 2 and 3 receivers bust 38% and 39%. Among the worst picks you can make in fantasy football. |
| Round 3 running backs bust 18% — the safest skill-position pick in rounds 2 through 5. The most under-discussed number in this whole breakdown. |
| Round 5 running backs bust 44%. Eighteen backs, six years, nearly half of them busts. This year's crop is exactly why — by that range, every back has questions. |
Our strategy already goes the other way on all three. We built it first, then ran the numbers. The numbers agreed.
So, that’s the short version.
The full breakdown goes round by round, walks all six board ranges, and picks apart five real drafts — including the two where the board refused to cooperate and we had to land the plane anyway.
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