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Sunday's lineup isn't going to set itself. Here's the call on every ranked running back and receiver in six of the games that swing the most, plus what Vegas thinks of each side.
All of it comes from our Week 3 START or SIT video.
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Ravens -3.5
28.25 implied · 63% to win
This is a fantastic Derrick Henry week. Dallas has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to running backs this year and was worse than that last season. Zay Flowers still hasn't practiced and we doubt they risk him in Brazil — but that doesn't make Bateman startable.
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Cowboys +3.5
24.75 implied · 38% to win
Baltimore has been dead average on defense — 15th-most points allowed to backs, 16th-most to receivers — so nothing here moves us off Lamb or Pickens, and Javonte Williams is the workhorse in a 25-point offense.
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| Start |
Sit |
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Derrick Henry
RB · BAL
Javonte Williams
RB · DAL
CeeDee Lamb
WR · DAL
George Pickens
WR · DAL
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Justice Hill
RB · BAL
Rashod Bateman
WR · BAL
Ryan Flournoy
WR · DAL
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Chargers +7
21.5 implied · 25% to win
Buffalo has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to backs and the third-most to receivers — the best combined matchup in this email. Hampton starts, Ladd starts, and Quentin Johnston is only a flex if your bench is worse.
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Bills -7
28.5 implied · 76% to win
Implied for 28.5 with Josh Allen playing like this. The Chargers are solid against the run — top 12, not top five — and leaky against receivers. With DJ Moore healthy, we don't want Shakir or Coleman in a lineup.
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| Start |
Meh |
Sit |
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Omarion Hampton
RB · LAC
Ladd McConkey
WR · LAC
James Cook III
RB · BUF
DJ Moore
WR · BUF
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Quentin Johnston
WR · LAC
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Keaton Mitchell
RB · LAC
Ray Davis
RB · BUF
Khalil Shakir
WR · BUF
Keon Coleman
WR · BUF
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Cardinals +8.5
19.75 implied · 22% to win
Red lights across the board for the receivers — San Francisco has allowed the seventh-fewest points to the position. Jeremiyah Love is the Cardinal to start: he out-snapped and out-touched Allgeier in the reps that mattered last week.
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49ers -8.5
28.25 implied · 79% to win
Implied for 28 as 80% favorites. Arizona has allowed the fifth-fewest points to backs and the fifth-most to receivers, so Evans and Deebo are the cleanest plays here. Evans didn't practice Wednesday; we still expect him to go. McCaffrey starts regardless.
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Sit |
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Jeremiyah Love
RB · ARI
Christian McCaffrey
RB · SF
Mike Evans
WR · SF
Deebo Samuel
WR · SF
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Tyler Allgeier
RB · ARI
Michael Wilson
WR · ARI
Marvin Harrison Jr.
WR · ARI
Kendrick Bourne
WR · ARI
Kaelon Black
RB · SF
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Jets +6.5
20.75 implied · 28% to win
Detroit has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to receivers, which is Garrett Wilson's whole case. Breece Hall starts no matter what that implied total says. Adonai Mitchell sits one more week — do it again and he moves up.
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Lions -6.5
27.25 implied · 73% to win
The Jets have given up the second-fewest points to running backs and it does not matter, because it's Jahmyr Gibbs. They've looked good against receivers too, on a sample far too small to believe — St. Brown and Jameson Williams both start.
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| Start |
Meh |
Sit |
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Breece Hall
RB · NYJ
Garrett Wilson
WR · NYJ
Jahmyr Gibbs
RB · DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR · DET
Jameson Williams
WR · DET
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Adonai Mitchell
WR · NYJ
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Braelon Allen
RB · NYJ
Sione Vaki
RB · DET
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Chiefs -11.5
28.75 implied · 86% to win
The highest implied total of anyone this week at 28.75, and Miami has surrendered the second-most fantasy points to running backs. If you own Kenneth Walker, congratulations. Rice still starts, but Miami has been sixth-stingiest against receivers — it's a tougher draw than the spread suggests.
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Dolphins +11.5
17.25 implied · 14% to win
Double-digit dogs with the lowest implied total in this email. Kansas City has been middle of the road against backs, which keeps Achane in lineups, and very good against receivers, which keeps every other Dolphin out of them.
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Sit |
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Kenneth Walker III
RB · KC
Rashee Rice
WR · KC
DeVon Achane
RB · MIA
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Emmett Johnson
RB · KC
Xavier Worthy
WR · KC
Malik Washington
WR · MIA
Chris Bell
WR · MIA
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Rams -2.5
23.5 implied · 57% to win
Denver has allowed the fourth-most points to backs — some of that is the Kenneth Walker game in Week 1 — and the fifth-fewest to receivers. Kyren is an easy start. We have Puka projected back for this one, but watch the reports right up to kickoff — and start Adams either way.
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Broncos +2.5
21 implied · 43% to win
Every back here is banged up in one way or another — a hamstring for Dobbins, an ankle for Coleman, Harvey never fully right — and the Rams have allowed the ninth-fewest points to the position. Waddle is the only Bronco we're comfortable with, tough coverage and all.
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| Start |
Meh |
Sit |
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Kyren Williams
RB · LAR
Puka Nacua
WR · LAR
Davante Adams
WR · LAR
Jaylen Waddle
WR · DEN
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Blake Corum
RB · LAR
RJ Harvey
RB · DEN
Courtland Sutton
WR · DEN
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J.K. Dobbins
RB · DEN
Jonah Coleman
RB · DEN
Pat Bryant
WR · DEN
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