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Week 4 is a lineup week. Here's the call on every ranked running back and receiver in six of the games that swing the most, plus what Vegas thinks of each side.
All of it comes from our Week 4 START or SIT video.
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Jaguars +3
24.25 implied · 43% to win
The biggest total on the board at 51.5, and Cincinnati has been dead middle of the road on defense — 13th-fewest to backs, 15th-fewest to receivers. Nothing here scares us off Tuten or Parker Washington.
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Bengals -3
27.25 implied · 57% to win
Implied for 27.25, the highest number in this email. Jacksonville is tough on the ground, allowing the seventh-fewest points to running backs, and you're starting Chase Brown into it anyway.
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| Start |
Sit |
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Bhayshul Tuten
RB · JAC
Parker Washington
WR · JAC
Chase Brown
RB · CIN
Ja'Marr Chase
WR · CIN
Tee Higgins
WR · CIN
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Chris Rodriguez Jr.
RB · JAC
Jakobi Meyers
WR · JAC
Brian Thomas Jr.
WR · JAC
Samaje Perine
RB · CIN
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Lions -3.5
27.25 implied · 65% to win
Carolina has allowed the third-most fantasy points to running backs, which makes this a green light across the board for Gibbs. The receiver side is the opposite — second-fewest allowed — and St. Brown starts anyway.
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Panthers +3.5
23.75 implied · 36% to win
Detroit has given up the fourth-most points to receivers, and that lands right on McMillan and Coker. The run defense is middle of the pack, so Chuba keeps rolling. Six starts in this game.
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Sit |
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Jahmyr Gibbs
RB · DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR · DET
Jameson Williams
WR · DET
Chuba Hubbard
RB · CAR
Tetairoa McMillan
WR · CAR
Jalen Coker
WR · CAR
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Sione Vaki
RB · DET
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Cowboys +3
22.75 implied · 41% to win
Houston has allowed the second-fewest points to backs and the third-most to receivers. Javonte stays in the lineup regardless, and this is the week Lamb and Pickens should both go off.
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Texans -3
25.75 implied · 60% to win
Implied for 25.75 with Dallas giving up the eighth-most points to running backs. Montgomery is the play; Woody Marks stays out until the split settles.
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Sit |
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Javonte Williams
RB · DAL
CeeDee Lamb
WR · DAL
George Pickens
WR · DAL
David Montgomery
RB · HOU
Nico Collins
WR · HOU
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Ryan Flournoy
WR · DAL
Woody Marks
RB · HOU
Kayshon Boutte
WR · HOU
Xavier Hutchinson
WR · HOU
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Patriots +6.5
21 implied · 26% to win
Buffalo has allowed the fourth-most points to backs and the fifth-most to receivers — the best matchup in this email on paper, attached to the offense least able to use it. That's why the backfield is a coin flip.
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Bills -6.5
27.5 implied · 75% to win
Implied for 27.5 against a New England defense that's been middle of the road all year. Cook is a set-and-forget start; with DJ Moore healthy we're not touching the rest of this receiver room.
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| Start |
Meh |
Sit |
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James Cook III
RB · BUF
DJ Moore
WR · BUF
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Rhamondre Stevenson
RB · NE
TreVeyon Henderson
RB · NE
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Mack Hollins
WR · NE
Romeo Doubs
WR · NE
DeMario Douglas
WR · NE
Ray Davis
RB · BUF
Khalil Shakir
WR · BUF
Keon Coleman
WR · BUF
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Broncos +2.5
22.75 implied · 44% to win
San Francisco has allowed the 12th-most points to backs, which sounds fine until you remember this is a three-way split. Waddle is the only Bronco we're putting in a lineup.
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49ers -2.5
25.25 implied · 56% to win
Denver has given up the fifth-most points to running backs, and that's the whole case for McCaffrey. Deebo is the only receiver ranked here, so he starts by default.
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Sit |
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Jaylen Waddle
WR · DEN
Christian McCaffrey
RB · SF
Deebo Samuel
WR · SF
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RJ Harvey
RB · DEN
J.K. Dobbins
RB · DEN
Courtland Sutton
WR · DEN
Pat Bryant
WR · DEN
Kaelon Black
RB · SF
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Falcons +2.5
22.75 implied · 45% to win
New Orleans has allowed the seventh-most points to running backs, so Bijan has a green light in a 48-point game. The receiver room past Drake London isn't startable.
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Saints -2.5
25.25 implied · 56% to win
Atlanta has given up the seventh-most points to receivers and the third-fewest to backs — so Olave eats and the backfield doesn't. Kamara and Kendre Miller both stay out this week.
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| Start |
Sit |
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Bijan Robinson
RB · ATL
Drake London
WR · ATL
Chris Olave
WR · NO
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Brian Robinson Jr.
RB · ATL
Jahan Dotson
WR · ATL
Alvin Kamara
RB · NO
Kendre Miller
RB · NO
Devaughn Vele
WR · NO
Bryce Lance
WR · NO
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